A hi-resolution 40-year gridded fire weather/danger climatology for Victoria, Australia

Abstract

A homogeneous 40-year (1972-2013) hourly 4-km gridded climate dataset for Victoria, Australia is being generated using a combination of mesoscale modeling, global reanalysis data, surface observations, and historic observed rainfall analyses. The primary purposes of this dataset are optimizing planned burning and land management strategies, and scenario planning for major fire events. Outputs include fire weather and fire danger variables. The output data are created using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. Error correction techniques are applied to minimize any model biases. Outputs provide an almost limitless opportunity for hitherto unavailable analyses – fields of percentiles of forest fire danger index (FDDI) values, analysis of periods exceeding thresholds at any location, inter-annual and regional variations of fire season characteristics, analysis of prescribed burning windows, of atmospheric dispersion climates, and various atmospheric stability measures that might affect fire behaviour, and to assess climatologies of more esoteric mesoscale weather events, such as mountain waves, that may affect fire behaviour. This presentation describes the generation of the dataset, shows examples of output, and highlights use and relevance for fire management.