Identifying risk preferences among wildfire managers and the consequences for incident management outcomes

Abstract

Management of wildfire incidents involves trade-offs over risks to firefighting personnel, private property and infrastructure, ecological values, public exposure to harm, and the costs of management. Trade-offs, non-linear probability weighting, and risk preferences among wildfire managers are investigated using a multi-attribute lottery choice experiment. The survey-based experiment asks managers to make strategic choices with varying levels of risk to aviation personnel, property damage, and suppression costs. A latent-class model is estimated to identify two classes of respondents with varying degrees of non-linear probability weighting. Differences between the two classes, explained by differences in educational attainment, suggest that expected outcomes of wildfire can vary depending on risk preferences and individual characteristics of managers.