Trends and changes of fire danger in Italy and its relationships with fire activity (1985-2008)

Abstract

The comprehensive understanding of trends in fire activity and associated drivers is crucial to anticipate future trends and regulate fire potential impacts, by means of efficient fire and fuel management strategies. A valuable tool to examine past changes on fire potential and danger across fire regions is represented by fire weather indexes. In this study, spanning from 1985 to 2008, recent trends and patterns of fire danger and the relationships between the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System components and fire activity were investigated across Italy. Although time series trend analysis revealed a statistically significant increase in temperature, no clear pattern of fire danger increase was unveiled, while the number of days with high fire danger level increased significantly, especially in central and southern Italy. Monthly fire activity was modeled using as explanatory variables FWI components and significant coefficient of determination were obtained. The applied statistical approach (multiple linear regression) explained a consistent part of the fire occurrence variance all year long (p<0.001), although relevant differences across Italy were found.