Modelling fine fuel moisture content and the likelihood of fire spread in blue gum (Eucalyptus globulus) litter

Abstract

The capabilities of accurately estimating dead fuel moisture content and predicting the likelihood of self-sustained fire spread are crucial to plan prescribed fire operations and achieve the treatment goals, among other fire management objectives. After analysis to determine whether some existing models could be adopted or adapted, we developed user-friendly equations to predict the moisture content of dead fine fuels in blue gum (Eucalyptus globulus) litter and examined their prediction ability. Models with vapour pressure deficit, the FFMC code of the Canadian FWI System (or the no. of days since last precipitation in alternative) and noon 10-m open wind speed from the nearest weather station as independent variables fitted the data suitably, as well as a physics based model. The probability of sustained fire propagation in experimental burns carried out in reconstructed blue-gum litter in the laboratory was described through fuel moisture content, litter depth and fire-spread direction (backward or forward). Both types of equations will be further tested in blue gum stands.