Daily maps of fire risk over Mediterranean Europe based on information from MSG satellite imagery

Abstract

Here we present a procedure that allows the operational generation of daily maps of fire danger over Mediterranean Europe. These are based on an integrated use of vegetation cover maps, weather data, and fire activity as detected by remote sensing from space. It is demonstrated that statistical models based on two-parameter Generalized Pareto (GP) distributions adequately fit the observed samples of fire duration and that these models are significantly improved when the Fire Weather Index (FWI), that rates fire danger, is integrated as a covariate of scale parameters of GP distributions. Probabilities of fire duration exceeding specified thresholds are then used to calibrate FWI leading to the definition of five classes of fire danger. Fire duration is estimated on the basis of 15-minute data provided by Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites and corresponds to the total number of hours fire activity is detected in a single MSG pixel during one day. Defined classes of fire danger provide useful information for wildfire management and are on the basis of the Fire Risk Mapping (FRM) product that is being disseminated on a daily basis by the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF).