Expanding the horizons of wildfire risk management

Abstract

Owing to increased computational capacity and other factors, wildfire simulation methodologies are becoming increasingly sophisticated, and are subsequently seeing increasing use for federal fire management within the United States. State-of-the-art simulation systems account for the occurrence, topological spread, and behaviour of wildfire, all within a spatially-explicit, stochastic framework. Leveraging these advancements in burn probability modelling, researchers and managers alike are better able to assess the hazards and risks associated with wildfires and to identify effective and efficient risk mitigation opportunities. In this paper, we review the role of stochastic simulation modelling in wildfire risk assessment, focusing on how simulation results can be used to support risk-informed decision making across planning contexts. Our principal focus will be describing how novel assessment tools can be brought to bear to analyse risks to the wildland urban interface and to municipal water supplies. We will review how assessment results can inform high-level prioritization and allocation decisions, as well as more in-depth, spatial suppression response and fuel treatment planning.