The weather circulation analysis over Adriatic region of Croatia in warm period 1981-2013

Abstract

The most frequent natural hazard in the Adriatic region are the forest fires, which are strongly affected by weather conditions. This is particularly stressed in the last two decades, when large fires occurred. Furthermore, the season has been expanded and large fires appeared also in early summer and early autumn, which was not so common before. In order to explain such a behaviour, an analysis of the atmospheric circulation patterns has been performed. The results reveal that the frequency of weather types conected to dry and warm conditions has been increased, and frequency of weather types with wet weather has been reduced. This is especially pronounced in June and September. Additionally, a change of number of days with precipitation has been observed, with less days with smaller precipitation and more days with larger precipitation. This can lead to additional drying of the fuel. The risk- and fire-managers should be aware of these trends in the future.