Assessing the increase in wildfire occurrence with climate change and the uncertainties associated with this projection

Abstract

According to climate projections, global warming is associated with increasing temperatures and dry spells in some parts of the world, especially the Mediterranean area. This climate change has already triggered increases in wildfire danger and fire season length in Southern Europe and is expected to amplify in the forthcoming decades. However, it is quite challenging for the scientific community to assess the intensity of these changes, because (i) the trend relies on the greenhouse gases (GHG) emission scenario and (ii) fire occurrence depends on multiple factors (including climate, but not only). A proper assessment of the trend in terms of fire occurrence and of uncertainties associated with this increasing trend, still lacks, especially for the French territory. Our study refines traditional approaches of fire risk projection under climate change on two aspects: (i) the impact of climate prediction uncertainties on the prediction of fire danger, and (ii) the translation of a danger index into a fire occurrence (per size classes).